The findings of the opinion polls published so far invariably show the incumbent AKP as the leading party. Most of them even indicate a higher voter support for the AKP at the 2011 elections with respect to 2007. However, this does not necessarily imply a higher number of seats in Parliament for the party, as the number of MPs could vary widely, based not only on the amount of votes garnered, but also on the distribution of votes across political parties; the number of parties exceeding the 10% threshold; and the number of independent MPs.
We estimated the critical level of votes for the AKP under different scenarios, in a bid to gauge the direction of the AKP’s policies post-2011 elections.
The first scenario shows the distribution of MPs based on the average of the most recent and reliable election polls. Accordingly, under the assumption of 32 independent MPs making it to Parliament and the AKP, the CHP and the MHP gaining 48%, 26% and 12% of the votes, respectively, we estimate the AKP winning 326 seats in Parliament, slightly lower than its current number of seats of 331. Moreover, in this eventuality, although it exceeds the requirement of 276 to form a single-party government, it fails to meet the requisite 330 seats to amend the constitution through a referendum.
The second scenario assumes the minor opposition party MHP remaining slightly below the country threshold of 10%, as some surveys have indicated. Under this scenario, the AKP wins 357 MPs with 48% of the votes, while CHP gets 161 seats with 26% of the votes. One interesting point to note is that even in a two-party Parliament with 32 independent MPs, the AKP may still fail to win a sufficient number of seats to amend the constitution without taking it to a referendum, unless it wins more than 52% of the votes.
Under the third and fourth scenarios, we estimated the minimum number of votes that would enable the AKP to pass a constitutional amendment with a referendum (min 330 MPs) or without a referendum (min 367 MPs). According to our simulations, in a three-party parliament with 32 independent MPs, the AKP would need to garner at least 45% of the votes to secure 330 MPs and at least 59.5% to secure 367 MPs, even if we assumed that the CHP and the MHP scored the worst results suggested by leading poll findings.
Hence, we conclude that
1- It seems almost impossible for the AKP to lose its single-party government status, i.e. fall below 276 MP
2- The AKP is likely to win around 330 MPs at the 2011 elections. If it exceeds 330, the AKP may amend the constitution to enable the adoption of the presidential system, and take it to a referendum. If it trails the 330 mark, we wouldn’t expect the AKP to go for a constitutional amendment.
3- The AKP is very unlikely to secure 367 seats, unless the MHP fails to pass the 10% threshold for representation in Parliament or the CHP’s voter support recedes back to its pre-Kilicdaroglu levels (around 20%). Therefore, it seems quite unlikely that the AKP will have the power to change the constitution by itself, i.e. without the support of other political parties or a referendum.
Having said that, it is not possible to derive reliable inferences regarding the outcome of the elections out of the current polls, due to the ambiguities related to the success of the election campaigns, parties’ candidates, as well as how voting decisions will be affected by the alliances and election agreements on the left and right. However, we expect the surveys to be conducted in the run up to the elections to yield more reliable findings, potentially enabling us to discern which of the aforementioned scenarios would be closer to the actual election outcome.
The Day After
A solid victory on the part of the AKP would set the stage for a constitutional reform, as Prime Minister Erdogan, while launching his party manifesto on April 16 ahead of June elections, pledged to undertake a complete overhaul of the current
constitution after the elections. Also, it is no secret that Erdogan ultimately wants to become the President. Erdogan is thought to be interested in replacing the current Turkish parliamentary system -- which allocates all executive powers to the
Parliament and its chosen cabinet -- with a presidential system. Moreover, PM Erdogan, who is believed to covet the presidential post, has not mentioned any plans for a presidential system in the manifesto. However, based on various
statements to date by Erdogan, the most likely system seems to be the US-type presidential system. A presidential system is not a foregone conclusion, however, as there is likely to be a great deal of opposition from within the AKP to such a
radical change.
In 2007, the Turkish Parliament amended the Constitution to allow the Turkish people to elect the head of the state, in lieu of the Parliament appointing someone to this position. However, it took nearly four years to amend the related laws regulating the
presidential election process, due to the legal ambiguity surrounding the tenure of the current president. According to the Constitution, the people will elect a president for a five-year period with the right to run for a second term. The new bill, which allows prime ministers and other figures the right to remain in their electoral seats while they campaign for presidency, is being interpreted as the first sign by Erdogan that he will seek the position, though this does not clear all the obstacles on the way to his presidency. Since Erdogan has announced that this will be the last time he seeks deputyship, the result of the 2011 elections
should indicate whether or not Erdogan might run for president. Timing is also important in this case, as the duration of President Abdullah Gul’s tenure is not clear at this point. The new bill does not address the issues as to whether President
Gul will serve his current term of seven years or a new one of five years when the next presidential elections take place or if Gul could run for president again. Some political pundits have claimed that Gul’s tenure should not extend to beyond 2012, while others have suggested that the presidential elections should be held in 2014. Erdogan has previously implied that Gul’s term should be five years. The Supreme Election Board (YSK) will have the final word on the matter.
However, there are other interpretations... According to a prominent political analyst and researcher, Tarhan Erdem, from KONDA, the next presidential election will most likely be held in 2012 and the date is already set.
“When are the presidential elections to be held? Preparations for the constitution that are to begin post-elections, and PM Erdogan having expressed his “approval” of the presidential regime, further strengthened in recent months the preconception that Erdogan was coveting the presidential seat. No one seemed even willing to listen to the contrary! If the Constitution were completed on time, presidential elections would be held in 2012; if not presidential elections would be deferred to 2014 and Erdogan would become the President!... However, in recent days, the Parliament, while setting the MP election date, has also determined the presidential election date: Presidential elections will have been completed within the 60 days preceding August 28, 2012. It is stated that whether presidential elections will be held in 2012 or 2014 will be decided by the High Election Board (YSK). This view, however, contravenes both the law and precedents. The YSK does not determine the terms of the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM), the President, or the provincial assemblies; these are decided by the Constitution, or by the Parliament, in conformity with the Constitution. The TBMM has designated how the constitutional amendment changing the presidential and parliamentary terms should be construed with its decision dated March 3, 2011, indicating that MP elections will be held prior to the completion of the 4-year period proceeding the 2007 elections. The term of the President, set as 5 years with the same law, will have expired on August 28, 2012.” (4 April 2011, Radikal)
Therefore, the distribution of seats at the next parliamentary elections is likely to be critical.
If the AKP secures 330-367 seats in Parliament in June 2011, it may have the power to change the constitution (with a referendum if it secures 330 seats - without a referendum if it secures 367 seats), which it will likely use to extend the power of the current president and introduce a presidential system. PM Erdogan could resign from the prime ministry and run for presidency in 2012 or 2014, depending on the YSK decision regarding the presidential election date.
If the AKP gets less than 330 seats, the presidential system may not come on the agenda, as the AKP would not have the power to change the constitution without the support of the opposition. Under this scenario, we think the odds of PM Erdogan
opting to abandon his powers as PM and run for presidency decrease substantially.
